Demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 2.2% in May compared with May 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.7%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 2.3% year on year. The load factor was 83.5% (up 0.1 percentage point compared with May 2025), a record high for May.

In other results:

• International demand fell 1.6% compared with May 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 3.1%. Capacity was down 2.4% year on year, and the load factor was 83.7% (up 0.7 percentage point compared with May 2025).
• Domestic demand contracted 3.1% compared with May 2025. Capacity decreased 2.1% year on year. The load factor was 83% (down 0.8 percentage point compared with May 2025).

Willie Walsh, director general, said, “Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year on year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East.” The decline, he said, was centered on carriers in the Middle East, with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. “That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April,” said Walsh, “a sign of the region’s resilience.” He added, “Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.”

Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares, said Walsh. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, he said, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time.

Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, said Walsh, and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in “normalized” jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, he said, “airlines operating on a 2% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs.”