Research from GBTA shows drop in overall optimism

Nearly one-third of global travel managers anticipate business travel volume will decrease significantly in 2025 amid US government actions, according to a GBTA poll of global travel buyers, suppliers and other industry professionals across North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. The poll was fielded March 31 to April 8 and had 905 responses.

 Additionally, 37% of travel suppliers and intermediaries expect their business travel-related revenue to decline, while overall industry optimism drops for 2025. The government actions, according to the survey, include tariffs, cross-border policies and entry restrictions.

Additional findings include:

• Less than half of global buyers (44%) anticipate their organization’s business travel spending and volume in 2025 will not be impacted, compared with 25% of travel suppliers who say the same for their business travel revenue.
• Almost a third (29%) of global travel buyers expect a decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025, averaging a 21% decrease. Additionally, a fairly large portion of travel buyers (19%) are uncertain about what the impact will be.
• More than a quarter (27%) of buyers now predict a 20% decrease on average in their business travel spending this year. (Notably, with global business travel spending forecast to reach $1.63 trillion in 2025, that could represent a potential decline in spending of up to $88 billion.)
• Thirty-seven percent of travel suppliers and TMC professionals anticipate a decline of 18% on average in related revenue.
• Because of overall concerns, only 31% of global industry professionals remain optimistic about the overall industry outlook for this year, while 40% are neutral. This marks a significant decline from GBTA’s November 2024 poll, when 67% of global industry professionals reported an optimistic outlook for 2025 and 26% were neutral.

Suzanne Neufang, CEO, GBTA, said that “while the outlook for global business travel was incredibly strong coming into 2025, our research now shows increasing concerns and uncertainty within our industry, considering recent actions taken by the US government.”

Traveling for work, said Neufang, “plays a vital role in supporting business growth, resilient economies, strong diplomatic ties and valuable connections.”  Productive and essential business travel, she said, “is threatened in times of economic uncertainty or in an environment of additional barriers and restrictions.”

Neufang added there are two key factors to watch that would influence longer-term impact for business travel: if there’s sustained economic pressure or uncertainty weighing on company budgets and if cross-border travel and global workforce mobility to and from the US are restricted.

Additional findings include: 

• Seven percent of buyer organizations have revised their corporate travel policies for travel to or from the US since January 2025, and another one-quarter (25%) say they are planning to or will consider doing so in the future; 64% are staying the course.
• Up to 20% have canceled, moved or pulled attendance from meetings and events located in the US, or are considering doing so.
• When it comes to relocating meetings or events from the US, a total of 14% say their organization has already done so (8%) or is considering it (6%). Companies located outside the US are three times more likely to relocate meetings to somewhere other than the US.
• When asked if they personally know someone whose trip has been affected by US border or travel policy changes, 23% of global industry professionals say they do.