Airlines are expected to achieve a combined total net profit of $41 billion in 2026 (up from $39.5 billion in 2025), according to the International Air Transport Association. While this would set a new record, the net profit margin is expected to be unchanged from 2025 at 3.9%. Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90 (below the 2023 high of $8.50, and unchanged from 2025).
Other projections included:
- Operating profit in 2026 is expected to be $72.8 billion (up from $67 billion in 2025) for a net operating margin of 6.9% (improved on the 6.6% expected for 2025).
- Total industry revenues are expected to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026 (up 4.5% on the $1.008 trillion expected revenues in 2025).
- Load factors are forecast to continue to set record highs with airlines expected to fill 83.8% of all seats over the year 2026.
- Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026 (up 4.4% on 2025).
- Overall, the 2026 cost outlook points to a more balanced environment. Fuel relief is offset by rising non-fuel pressures, but the broader slowdown in inflation is helping to stabilize the cost base.
North American profitability remains stable, but the region ceded its most profitable ranking to Europe in 2025. The US suffered stagnating overall growth and a domestic market contraction in the face of policy uncertainty around tariffs, tighter immigration enforcement dampening both inbound and domestic travel, and a lengthy government shutdown. Despite these hurdles, airlines managed to protect margins in 2025, supported by stable yields and lower fuel prices.
Looking ahead, 2026 in North America is expected to see some easing of these challenges and the opportunity for a gradual increase in demand.
Willie Walsh, director general, said the forecast “is extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces—rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade and growing regulatory burdens among them.” Airlines, he said, “have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,”
