Global air traffic demand was up in January, with international demand leading the way, according to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Results included:

• Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 3.8% compared with January 2025. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), increased 3.5% year-on-year. The load factor was 82% (up 0.2 percentage points compared with January 2025), a record high for January.
• International demand rose 5.9% compared with January 2025. Capacity was up 5.8% year on year, and the load factor was 82.5% (up 0.1 percentage points compared with January 2025).
• Domestic demand increased 0.1% compared with January 2025. Capacity was down -0.4% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.2% (up 0.4 percentage points compared with January 2025).

January demand was skewed by a shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026, according to the report. Lunar New Year typically drives a spike in demand, as families reconnect to celebrate the holiday. The year-on-year comparison has the effect of making January 2026 demand appear slightly weaker.

Willie Walsh, director general, said the timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but he added that “the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026.”

Schedule data, for example, said Walsh, indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024. Events over the weekend (the war in the Middle East), said Walsh, have “introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs.” He continued: “We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.”

Average fares, said Walsh, are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel. This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, said Walsh, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments who value competition, he said, should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, said Walsh, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed.

North American carriers saw a 3.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 2.6% year on year, and the load factor was 82.3% (up 0.6 percentage points compared with January 2025).

Domestic RPK rose just 0.1% over January 2025, mostly affected by the shift of Lunar New Year. The load factor rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to a record January high of 81.2%, as capacity fell -0.4%. China, Australia and the US all posted traffic declines, but Brazil was once again a strong performer, rising 10.9% year on year.