For many in the business travel industry, 2025 was a mixed bag. While moderate growth kept the industry humming, fast-moving economic and geopolitical pressures constantly taxed travel programs.
How will things look in 2026? International business travel is posting a steady climb upward, but the landscape is anything but calm. Travel managers are navigating a swirl of new visa and border rules, tariff uncertainty, and stumbling to find the best air fares.
Baseline forecasts for 2026 still assume modest inflation and slow growth. However, risks can quickly change in the backdrop of accelerating economic uncertainty (such as supply chain backlogs or sudden labor shortages). Future projections can also be skewed by unforeseen geopolitical instability (think shifting trade alliances, regional elections and more international conflicts). Either way, travel managers need to stay ahead of the curve.
Sailing in Economic Crosswinds
“2026 travel will be most shaped by affordability and friction – with tariffs and border policy acting as accelerants, and the World Cup plus climate disruptions creating sharp regional spikes and shifts,” reflects Bruce McIndoe, president and founder of McIndoe Risk Advisory. “What this means tactically for travel managers and/or TMCs is to plan ahead for volatility, not collapse. Think friction points – not system failure.”
Cost management has always been top of mind for buyers but is now even more central. The Global Business Travel Association’s 2026 Global Business Travel Forecast projects a 0.4 percent increase for corporate travel airfares for the next 12 months.
Tariffs definitely have their part to play when it comes to affordability/cost management. If tariffs ease, travel may boom. If they escalate, buyer behavior may shift to aggressive value hunting. “Tariffs and trade tensions are already showing up as cost pressure in airlines and hotels (equipment, imported food and beverage, operating inputs) and as a confidence drag on discretionary spend. 2026 looks like the year when those effects could be more visible if tariffs broaden or persist – especially in North America,” explains McIndoe.
Lessons in Preparedness
Border crossings have always carried some level of risk such as secondary inspections, device searches and document questions. The bad news is, this risk isn’t going away, especially under the current US administration’s more stringent enforcement of policies. The good news is, as rules stabilize, the learning curve will flatten.
“While we probably won’t see any relaxing on border controls and security, there may be more uniformity in US Customs and Border Protection officers’ actions,” states Tyler Hosford, security director, west region for International SOS. “Similarly, travel managers will better ensure that employees know their rights and responsibilities, and organizations will empower them with effective tools.” These tools can run the gamut from providing travelers with the right travel documents that match their ‘intended purpose of visit’ to an escalation protocol/playbook.
As everyone gets used to the new normal, travelers too will adjust. They will have an improved sense of how to better respond to purpose-of-trip questions, foresee potential problems and be proactive about solutions (such as having the company’s immigration lawyer’s phone number on hand).
“Preparedness is now a core part of traveler duty of care,” affirms Nan Park, senior vice president of Newland Chase and incoming DC chapter president for GBTA. “While there is a broader global shift toward risk-based traveler vetting and digital identity management, for organizations, immigration, compliance and travel are no longer distinct lanes. Visa and border issues should never sit solely with the travel team. Effective organizations connect Risk, HR, Legal, and Mobility so that changes in requirements are evaluated before a traveler is ticketed.”
Unfortunately, reputational stakes are high if companies don’t have their ducks in a row. “As companies wrestle with changes in immigration policy, we are also reminding them to speak with their leadership about the need to bolster internal compliance capabilities,” states Tiffany Derentz, a member of the government strategies team for BAL, based in Washington, DC. “Policies can change quickly, but the results of a government investigation can have a significant, lasting impact on the viability of the company.”
I’ll Take My Business Elsewhere
Sometimes it may be easier for companies to just reroute business to other parts of the globe where these kinds of hassles at the borders and visa stipulations aren’t as prominent. “Visa wait times will remain the single biggest drag on international business travel into the US,” says Park. “Even with demand strengthening, companies cannot deploy talent if delays continue at current levels. This issue has now surpassed cost and scheduling as the primary barrier for many non-US travelers.”
Compounding the backlog of visa interviews is the CBP’s proposal to require applicants to provide a long list of personal data (including social media, e-mail addresses from the last decade, and the names, birth dates, places of residence and birthplaces of parents, spouses, siblings and children) from countries who are eligible for the visa waiver program. The visa waiver program allows people from 42 countries to travel to the US for up to 90 days without a visa (but with an ETA). The CBP’s proposal for more data collection – if implemented – could result in lengthening of visa queues too, only further discouraging travel to the US.
Geopolitical tension is also increasingly shaping corporate travel decisions on where to travel. Total US inbound travel spending is forecast to fall 3.2 percent to $173 billion in 2025, according to an October release by the US Travel Association. This is driven primarily by Canadians choosing alternative destinations amid policy backlash and border uncertainties.
Other barriers to travel, while lower in impact, include biometric screenings at airports. Many travelers are still uneasy with biometrics, but this trend seems to be here to stay. DHS/CBP finalized and expanded biometric exit/entry rules in late 2025, and Schengen borders will roll out phased facial and fingerprint capture for non-EU travelers in Q4 2026. Only time will tell if this process will be smooth or uneven.
However, the greater story around biometrics (which monitors all travelers’ arrivals and departures) surrounds length-of-stay tracking. “While governments will have this data, employers generally won’t have access to it, which means the responsibility for monitoring cumulative days in-country still rests with the company,” reminds Park. “With extended business trips becoming more common, length-of-stay compliance is now a material corporate risk, not an administrative detail.”
Disruptions & Detours
Knowing which destinations require what kind of applications and at what time increasingly forces travel managers to take up a magnifying glass to read the fine print. For example, multiple changes are afoot in Europe, offering a glimpse of the complexity ahead:
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The UK ETA is already live and will be mandatory for US and other visa-exempt travelers in early 2026, and a standing requirement for 2026 trips. For UK trips, the ETA must be in hand before travel and requires application at booking for new travelers.
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The EU’s Entry/Exit System (EES) is live, paving the way for ETIAS by late 2026. ETIAS must be obtained before ticketing/travel once mandatory.
“Airlines will be checking ETIAS/ETA status at check-in once required; if a traveler doesn’t have it, they may not be allowed to board. This is the single biggest operational risk,” explains McIndoe. ETAs/ETIAS are also tied to a passport, so having a new name or dual nationality may increase the chance of a ‘passport mismatch.’ To note, as ETIAS nears launch, fraudulent sites are already targeting travelers, who should steer clear of third-party sites and stick to official ones.
“Collectively, these systems will affect over a billion border crossings annually,” says Max Tremaine, CEO of Sherpa, a documentation platform. “These changes add pre-travel compliance requirements that didn’t exist before: New workflows, new points of failure, and new traveler education needs.”
Beyond ensuring travelers have the right digital authorizations at the right time, the increasing costs of entry (for both visas and e-documents), aircraft backlogs and other risks such as cybercrime are further sources of disruptions. However, two larger-looming issues the industry faces in 2026 include weather changes and mega-events.
Climate concerns are shaping when and where people go, inspiring organizations to shift meetings to cooler destinations and shoulder seasons, and to purchase the relevant insurances to protect against heat or storm risk. “Out of season weather disturbances are on the rise,” affirms Hosford.
Mega-events will drive price surges in host cities, in addition to intensifying security concerns. For example, a pronounced inbound spike is expected during the FIFA World Cup in summer 2026, especially as the US Department of State has reassured ticket holders that their visa appointments will be prioritized under the new “FIFA PASS” program. Business travelers attending these types of mega-events as part of the bleisure segment of their trips should assess potential risks. Not all activities conducted during the course of a business trip are “covered,” and this evergreen duty of care issue should be addressed far in advance of travel.
How to Stay Ahead in ’26
An International SOS Risk Outlook 2026 report recently stated that “66 percent of respondents said uncertainty has been an increasingly prominent feature of their risk landscape in the past 12 months.” Will this uncertainty be a source of endless disruptions in 2026?
Yes and no. While ambiguity surrounding issues such as tariffs are most likely here to stay, what is emerging is a stronger breed of resilience. One way this resilience shows up is through traveler confidence. According to IATA, 90 percent of passengers agree that air connectivity is critical to the economy, and 88 percent believe air travel still has a positive impact on societies. Simply put, will continue to fly
“It’s important to recognize that pricing will always move year-to-year based on external factors such as geopolitics, supply constraints, fuel costs and airline capacity,” adds April Wheeler, SVP customer success, CTM North America. “What influences price is the broader macro environment. That’s why accessing all available content, NDC, EDIFACT, OTA, negotiated and consortia matters. Travelers who can compare the full marketplace are in the strongest position to secure the best fare for their business needs.”
Relaying so many different types of information to travelers in targeted communications will be foundational for success in 2026 and beyond. “My advice to travel managers is don’t wait,” says Tremaine. “Build UK ETA and ETIAS compliance into your pre-trip workflows now, not when the first traveler gets stuck. Educate travelers proactively. Most of these authorizations take just minutes to obtain, but travelers need to know they exist Add reminders to booking confirmations, audit corridors with low compliance, and flag destination requirements at time of purchase. And – don’t try to track all this yourself. Rely on specialized partners to monitor requirements.”
