There will be a continuation of the status quo in airfare prices in 2024, with only minor fluctuations, according to John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, a provider of travel data. He said that although the industry may see a slight shaving of fares as demand softens in the very low season, the fundamentals of a high operating costs base — including oil prices and increased salaries — remain. The combination of softer demand and higher costs, said Grant, “suggests we will not see much of a shift in prices from this year to the next.”

Grant also offered the following predictions:

Low-cost carriers (LCC’s) are gaining traction. Consumers will always come back for a low fare, said Grant, and that’s helping LCC’s maintain a competitive stance. There is a growing share of capacity behind flights operated by low-cost airlines, he said. Some of the largest airports in the US, said Grant, have seen a huge boost in flights operated by LCC’s in the past three years, and that’s expected to grow.

Disruptions aren’t going anywhere: Those that have been seen this year will roll over into 2024. Pratt & Whitney’s engine issue (which has already affected multiple aircraft and airlines) will be at its peak next year, and that, combined with a lack of increased infrastructure investment and climate change-related weather disruptions, said Grant, “spells trouble for travelers.”