As growing uncertainty jolts global business travel, companies need to be extra prepared for the unexpected

Running the gauntlet of new governmental barriers is getting more daunting. Whether business travelers are US citizens heading outbound, or are non-US citizens coming inbound for a meeting, event or other kind of business, things have noticeably changed. Some reports indicate the US stands to lose as much as $90 billion in revenue this year from the consequences of a decline in travel and foreign boycotts of US goods. 

It’s a complicated cocktail: First, there is the impact of tariffs on the global aviation market and its not-so-fun implications for international trade, travel and tourism. This situation is evolving. Second, with a climate of increased scrutiny at the borders, many business travelers – especially those desiring to add a bleisure trip to their itinerary – are thinking twice. Third, visa rules are in flux. Given the current administration’s proposed reorganization of the State Department, which could mean closing dozens of embassies and consulates, US visa appointment availability may decrease even further.

Concerns of a decline in international travel to the US in 2025 are widespread. According to one report in Time magazine, the number of people arriving in the US from abroad could drop by 9.4 percent this year. Travel from Canada may be the hardest hit area. According to OAG, passenger bookings on Canada-US routes – as of this writing – are currently down by 70 percent compared to the same period last year.

Breaking it down: according to an April report in Travel and Tour World, March saw a 17 percent decline in travelers from Western Europe, a 24 percent drop from Central America, and a 26 percent drop from the Caribbean compared to March of the previous year. There was a 33 percent drop in visitors from Colombia, 28 percent from Germany, and 25 percent from Spain.

Bleak numbers notwithstanding, the International Air Transport Association’s latest numbers show international demand rising 4.9 percent in March compared to the year prior, while capacity was up 7.0 percent year-on-year. Although the data came before the current trade tensions escalated, the data reveals there may be greater resilience in the travel market, provided the present turbulence in global trade can be brought to heel in relatively short order.

Some resolution would also be good news for the wider travel-related industry being swept up in global chaos. For example, Boeing is directly affected by retaliatory tariffs from China. Airlines are already facing upcoming likely increases in fuel and supply chain costs, while the prospect of reduced passenger volumes may drive up prices all around. 

How soon the smoke clears and the road ahead becomes more certain is anybody’s guess. Time will tell.

Where the Winds Blow

So, are we going backwards? The forecast for global business travel at the beginning of 2025 was strong, but current research shows the winds are changing. According to a recent GBTA poll, almost a third (29 percent) of global travel buyers “expect a decline in business travel volume at their companies in 2025, averaging a 21 percent decrease. Additionally, 37 percent of travel suppliers and intermediaries expect their business travel-related revenue to decline, while overall industry optimism drops for 2025.”

This begs the question: Should your organization be revising its travel policies in light of recent events? Well, this may depend on how risk averse your organization is. According to the GBTA poll, 7 percent of buyer organizations have revised their corporate travel policies for travel to or from the US since January 2025, and another one-quarter (25 percent) say they are planning to or will consider doing so in the future. However, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) say they are staying the course.

Setting aside the shifting political landscapes, we know that complex visa requirements can also deter travelers. An October 2023 IATA report found that more than a third of travelers (36 percent) of travelers say they have been discouraged from traveling to a particular destination because of immigration requirements. Process complexity was highlighted as the main deterrent by nearly half (49 percent), while 19 percent cited costs and 8 percent privacy concerns.

That said, today, “obtaining a business visa may be more of a hassle due to increased times for vetting and verification,” says Roz Hall, a managing shareholder at Hall Immigration and a partner at the law firm of O’Hagan Meyer in Atlanta, GA. It’s on the traveler’s shoulders, ultimately, to double check details before traveling. For example, if your passport isn’t updated, or isn’t valid six months past the date of entry, it could pose a problem.

Organizations that specialize in visas and passport rules, like global immigration services provider Nomadic, can assist. “Currently, US passport holders do not require visas to travel to most European countries for short-term business or tourism. However, US citizens now need an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) to enter or transit through the UK,” advises Carsten Østberg, managing director of Nomadic, located in the Nordics region.

“US embassies around the world are currently experiencing significant delays and a lack of appointment availability. Appointments for some visa categories, such as B1/B2 in countries like India are fully booked until 2026, while in others, appointments are not being offered at all,” Østberg cautions. “Foreign nationals residing in Canada are facing similar challenges. At the US consulate in Toronto, for instance, appointments are currently unavailable until December 2026. These extended wait times have the potential to impact the number of business travelers coming to the US from countries that require B1/B2 visas,” he adds.

“For the EU, we see more and more ESTA (the US Electronic System for Travel Authorization) denials under unknown reasons,” says Nan Park, principal at USILAW in Bethesda, MD. “If an ESTA is cancelled, the only way to travel to the US is to get a B1/B2 paper visa, which requires a consular appointment overseas.” 

And just to note, beginning May 7, 2025, Real ID requirements in the US will begin for domestic travelers. Also, starting in 2026, US citizens traveling to most European Union countries for a short-tern visit must apply for an ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System).

Uncertainty at the Borders

Reports of foreign nationals with valid work visas being detained at borders have raised eyebrows. “Today there is an increased enforcement of laws – laws that are already present,” says Hall. “Heightened questioning of foreign and dual nationals, and permanent residents has been more common since Trump’s Executive Order; so far, US-citizen business travelers who are re-entering the US seem to be insulated.”

However, there is a greater level of uncertainty today that adds to travelers’ apprehension. What exactly is a red flag for a Customs and Border Protection officer? Social media on your phone? A past DUI? Participation in a protest? It’s still unclear. “If you’re traveling for business, ask your company to write an official letter of intent, especially if you’re coming from a country that’s restricted. Make sure you haven’t violated any laws (even minor ones) or visa stipulations during past visits and get things cleared before traveling,” Hall continues. 

“In addition to a valid visa and passport, business travelers should carry proof of legal residence (for returning visa holders or green card holders), a business travel letter from your company outlining the reason for travel, any invitation letters, conference registrations or itineraries, hotel stays, etc.” Park adds. 

“To prepare travelers, security and travel managers should openly communicate potential concerns to them,” advises Bruce McIndoe, president and founder of McIndoe Risk Advisory. “A CBP officer possesses a wide berth of discretion. If an officer questions you, try not to panic and get into heated arguments. Remain calm and courteous. For example, maybe you have an ESTA visa but your LinkedIn profile says, ‘open to work.’ A CBP officer may flag that, thinking you’re seeking work opportunities here when you’re only coming as a tourist. Make sure your documentation is aligned and your explanations are clear,” McIndoe cautions.

“Recently, we have seen reports of CBP officers conducting searches on electronic devices at the border,” Park notes. While it’s legal to be searched at a port of entry, based on probable cause, McIndoe explains the rules are different depending on whether you’re a US citizen. “Many organizations provide travel devices that are wiped clean. If you don’t want to deal with the hassle of a potential disruption, taking a personal flip phone may be an easy fix,” he says.

Extending Duty of Care

Despite all these concerns, it’s important not to be alarmist. “The link between business travel and economic growth is undeniable. So, with all the uncertainty today, it’s more important than ever for companies to invest in a managed corporate travel program to help navigate this complex landscape,” says Charlene Leiss, president of the Americas at Flight Centre Travel Group. “Despite all the potential changes, businesses should still feel confident that they can embrace corporate travel, which can be a way to strategically offset some of the ongoing challenges facing our country right now.”

According to the GBTA poll of 905 travel buyers globally, the economics and business costs of travel is the primary concerns for the majority (54 percent), alongside additional travel processing and administration needs such as visas or documentation (46 percent). However, traveler-focused concerns, such as the willingness of foreign employees to travel to the US, cannot be ignored. Additionally, the survey reports, “When asked if they personally know someone whose trip has been affected by US border or travel policy changes, 23 percent of global industry professionals say they do.” 

Taking care of the safety of travelers has long been a duty of care issue, and that is even more top-of-mind in today’s uncertain climate. With the ambiguity at the borders, and resulting traveler anxiety, it behooves organizations to be “extra” prepared, says Christine Connolley, senior crisis program manager, Global Crisis Management at BCD Travel. “While uncommon, reports of increasing detentions at US ports of entry understandably heighten traveler concerns,” Connolley says. “This underscores the importance of preparation, ensuring travelers have the proper documentation, know what to expect, and have access to the right support and key contacts if needed,” she says.

“Always communicate your movements to others,” Park advises. “Inform your employer and a personal contact of your travel schedule. For all parties, ensure they know what steps to take if they don’t hear from you after a certain amount of time. Border screening can be stringent; the level of scrutiny is understandably concerning for employers and employees.”

Other kinds of visas may be subject to increased scrutiny in the future as well, so it’s important for organizations to set up risk mitigation efforts while anticipating more layers of complexity ahead. “People don’t want to subject themselves to an environment of additional scrutiny,” Hall says. “For employers, it’s wise to educate their travelers and if needed, to seek legal counsel.”