An increasing number of headlines are highlighting aviation’s turbulence-related injuries, while others report the impacts of climate change. Today the two stories are colliding head-on, impacting both private and commercial aviation. And more of those turbulence incidents are unanticipated, coming without any warning either from weather services or from the flight deck. In 2023 alone, one turbulence prediction platform posted 38 million turbulence reports. 

Few realize that passengers play a greater role in aviation safety and it’s not just about paying attention to flight attendant briefings about emergency exits, water landings and oxygen masks. Perhaps the single most important thing passengers can do to maintain their own safety in flight is fasten their seatbelts, especially when pilots activate the seatbelt sign. But this also means passengers must be alert to keep personal belongings, including laptops, from becoming projectiles during severe rough air. 

Even squirmy kids can take responsibility for their own safety by being aware of the hazards. But safety experts recommend lap children – who can also become projectiles – should be in an aircraft-approved, child safety seat. There are also the passengers or crew moving about the cabin who can fall, be injured or injure someone else when the flying gets rough. That is why cabin crew are so vigilant in following pilot instructions during turbulence.

“Fasten your seatbelt,” advised Trey Clark, flight planning manager, Americas, at UAS, a Dubai- based flight planning service for private aviation flights. “This is the most crucial safety tip; keep it tightly fastened across your lap at all times. Stay seated. If you are standing when turbulence begins, immediately grab the nearest seat and hold on tight. Listen to the crew. Pay close attention to instructions from the pilots and/or flight attendants, as they are trained to help you respond correctly.” 

Climate change is throwing off weather norms, and beyond more terrestrial hazards such as hurricanes, tornados and floods, the largest impact comes in the skies as new weather patterns shift jet streams. All that translates to flight delays or cancellations, diversions and increased costs and emissions as pilots try to smooth out the ride. 

Technology Aids Safety 

Pilots are paying greater heed to these threats. A decade ago, they hardly took notice of turbulence forecasts, viewing them as unreliable. Instead, they relied more on route and altitude changes to counter turbulence or choosing to fly through it knowing the limits of their aircraft to withstand the turbulence loads. 

Technology and forecasts from other pilots have changed that calculation, according to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science of the University of Reading. Williams, who studies weather and warns of the rapid variations in wind speed, direction and altitude that cause wind shear, says turbulence forecasts from commercial sources have improved from 60 percent accuracy to close to 85 percent. As a result, pilot confidence has increased leading to more proactive efforts to avoid occurrences and warn passengers to buckle up in advance.

“Turbulence has greatly increased across the globe,” Williams told the National Business Aviation Association when he presented the results of a study he did in partnership with the American Geophysical Union in 2023. “The largest increases over the past 40 years for Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) have come over the US and the North Atlantic, increasing 55 percent in severe-or-greater CAT since 1979,” he told the association. “The worst consequences relate to passenger safety but the impact on the efficiency of the flight and sustainability are also severe given the necessity to deviate to different altitudes to smooth out the flight.”  

Endeavor Elements co-founder and CEO Yves Remmler, who is researching technology solutions, cites Williams’ recent study. “Because of climate change, turbulence is increasing, both in terms of magnitude and frequency,” he told Business Travel Executive. “It is expected to increase an additional 154 percent in the next 20 years.”

Airlines are responding with measures that can have a positive impact. However, Remmler notes, these solutions are suboptimal and costly; they include rerouting, AI based weather models and a strict enforcement of seatbelt rules. 

“The International Air Transport Association is providing more granular weather data and pilot reports to operators for rerouting,” he says. “Several companies are working on LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) based detection of turbulence to provide the pilots with additional information to react more appropriately.” 

LIDAR fires laser pulses forward and measures the reflection from air particles which can detect CAT several miles ahead of the aircraft. “This is a significant advancement because CAT is invisible to conventional weather radar,” Clark explains.

Remmler also points to manufacturer efforts such as improved autopilot systems that damp turbulence such as Boeing’s introduction of “Gust Load Alleviation.” Gust suppression systems use sensors to detect abrupt pressure changes and automatically adjust flight control surfaces to counteract the forces acting on the aircraft. The result is smoother ride for passengers by keeping the fuselage more stable. 

In addition, Clark cites the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning. For example, All Nippon Airways and others are analyzing vast amounts of weather data and predicting turbulence with up to 86 percent accuracy. “These systems help optimize flight paths to avoid rough air, save fuel and improve safety,” Clark says. 

Other developments include infrared sensors – special microphones developed by NASA – that can detect ultra-low frequencies generated by turbulence from hundreds of miles away. These are now being tested on research aircraft. “Smaller aircraft use sensors and small control surfaces on the wings for ‘turbulence cancelling’ to counteract turbulent air in real time, reducing the effect by more than 80 percent,” Clark says.

Flight Planning Takes a Role 

Flight planning services, which are playing a larger part in the private aviation experience, cite the increasing turbulence incidents for the increased attention to the problem. Indeed, both private and commercial aviation have marshalled several new tools to enhance safety, bringing Waze-like accuracy to hazards in the skies as pilots crowdsource flying conditions. 

Forecasts from the Aviation Weather Center, an interactive Flight Path Tool operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, are combined with traditional tools such as radar, satellites and pilot reports (PIREPS), to deliver the Graphical Turbulence Guidance tool that lists significant meteorological (SIGMETS) hazards on a given flight path. In addition, more operators have signed on to SmartSky’s Mark One-model “eyeball in the sky.” 

Meanwhile the International Air Transportation Association has deployed Turbulence Aware, delivering live data of turbulence to an increasing number of airlines. Seen as a game changer, Turbulence Aware leverages flight data to provide real-time, accurate turbulence reporting so pilots and dispatchers can optimize routing to minimize turbulence and maximize efficiency. With 2600 aircraft flown by more than 25 airlines using the platform, the system can generate millions of turbulence reports.

Today, NASA is studying the impact of turbulence on the emerging air taxi industry because of the increasing number of airline and private aviation incidents. Flying at lower altitudes makes advanced air mobility especially vulnerable to turbulence which means certification requirements must account for that.

“The eVTOL manufacturers have implemented AI controlled algorithms that suppress turbulence, avoiding rerouting,” Remmler explains. 

Technology Is Not Enough

With all these tools, does that mean turbulence can be avoided? Not with the dramatic rise in CAT which is difficult to predict. Consequently, pilots, flight attendants and passengers must be part of the solution to unexpected events. One such recent incident caused the death of one passenger and injuries to 71 others on a Singapore Airlines flight. Similarly, a Delta aircraft was forced to divert because of the seriousness of the injuries to 25 passengers after a turbulence event. 

In the US alone, the Federal Aviation Administration reported 184 serious injuries between 2009 to 2023, many to crewmembers during inflight service. The bottom line is all airlines and private aviation flights are at risk. Indeed, the most common injuries aboard private aircraft result from failing to buckle up. More importantly, passengers and cabin crew have been injured when passengers failed to heed the chime and seatbelt sign.  

“Travel managers should not be afraid of turbulence since the industry is aware of the problem and actively working on different approaches to solve turbulence incidents,” Remmler says. “They remain rare in general, and newer planes are more likely to be equipped with mitigating technology.”

Making the right flight plan is the beginning of the process, according to UAS. Clark says pre-flight and inflight information can help pilots and dispatchers avoid turbulence and navigate around areas associated with unstable air.

Clark points to all the tools available as flight planning gets underway such as the government-issued reports like AIRMETS, SIGMETS and PIREPS and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance products. In concert with air traffic control, flight crews can request altitude changes above or below the convective activity or request re-routing around weather appearing on the aircraft’s weather radar systems. 

“Modern aircraft flight decks are equipped with various technologies to help pilots avoid or mitigate turbulence,” Clark explains. “In addition to onboard systems, pilots use meteorological forecasts and real-time reports from other aircraft to identify and fly around turbulent conditions. 

Pilots also have technology on board that detects abrupt shifts in wind speed and direction ahead of the aircraft. Predictive wind shear systems give pilots advance warning to take corrective action. The autopilot, capable of managing the aircraft through moderate-to-severe turbulence also plays a role. Pilots may engage ‘turbulence mode,” which adjusts control inputs to minimize the effects of the bumps.”

Should passengers tap into apps such as Turbli, Fly with Courage and Turbulence Forecast which provide weather and turbulence forecasts to passengers? Most pilots advise against it if it will increase passenger anxiety, plus flight plans are regularly changed by pilots because of the weather.

The Most Turbulent Routes 

Remmler points out turbulence often depends on the route. “Some routes are more prone to turbulence than others, especially over mountainous or coastal areas,” he notes. “Travel managers should encourage compliance with crew instructions and seatbelt use. Seats closer to the wings will in general be slightly less impacted by turbulence, and larger planes are more stable.” 

Mohamed Foudad, researcher at the University of Reading, Berkshire, England, published a list of the most turbulent routes across the globe and it is no surprise that they include the most mountainous areas, according to Turbli.com. Still most incidents in Foudad’s study were mild (20-40) on a scale of 0-100 with 80-100 of what he calls eddy dissipation rates (EDR), being the most extreme.

The Butterfly Effect

Turbulence-related problems have repercussions on the entire journey, according to Adam Miller, senior director of business development at Go Rentals. Miller cautions that planning for trip disruption is an important part of the package. 

“Inflight turbulence can absolutely cause a butterfly effect on the ground,” he says. “Starting with delays, there needs to be a good method by which to monitor those delays and meet the traveler right on time. If the flight is delayed, then that means the traveler is at risk of being late for an important meeting.” 

Miller also cites diversions as a major disruption. “Business aviation flights are always planned with a diversion airfield which provides the pilot with a backup plan and enough fuel if there is a weather event or temporary flight restriction,” he notes. “The diversion field is typically the next closest field which can accommodate the aircraft size.” 

Miller explains that when a Go Rentals vehicle is booked, the company tracks tail numbers and flight numbers of the operation to adjust for delays, diversions or even early arrivals. Monitoring the flight’s progress allows the rental car provider to anticipate changes, so the vehicles is ready upon arrival with no ground delays. “By meeting them planeside as soon as the wheels are chocked, we give them some time back,” Miller says.

While technology solutions are both in development and deployed, passengers themselves can be a part of the solution by simply buckling up and maintaining situational awareness of things that might go flying when they’re not supposed to.