Geopolitical instability has emerged as the dominant external risk affecting business travel decisions in 2026, according to the April business travel industry sentiment poll from the Global Business Travel Association. The survey of over 500 corporate travel managers, travel suppliers and intermediaries worldwide found nearly eight in ten respondents (79 percent) now say escalating conflicts, higher costs and growing disruption are creating the top travel-related risks.

The research found global business travel continues a steady pace but with considerably more caution, less confidence and more operational complexity, compared with GBTA’s January poll.

Geopolitical instability, cost pressures and overall disruption have eroded overall industry optimism, with just 41 percent of survey respondents saying they are optimistic about the industry in 2026, down from 59 percent in January, while pessimism has nearly tripled, from 9 percent in January to 24 percent of respondents in April.

Organizations are actively adjusting why and how they are traveling for work now, according to GBTA. The shift can be seen across regions but is most pronounced in Europe, where more than 9 in 10 respondents (92 percent) identify geopolitics as a primary risk, compared with 72 percent in North America.

Over three-quarters (76 percent) of buyers surveyed noted the current global tensions are having moderate or significant impact on their organization’s business travel and meetings decisions. More than four in five (83 percent) travel suppliers surveyed report the conflicts are materially affecting their customers.

Among real-world consequences, respondents cited route and itinerary changes (50 percent), suspension of all travel to/within the region (50 percent), and re-evaluation of duty of care policies (36 percent). 

With the lower expectations, the survey found business travel is likely to soften significantly for the rest of the year, with more than a quarter of buyers (28 percent) now looking for volume to decline in 2026. The April poll reported a 5-point drop in the number of buyers who expect an increase in the number of business trips, from 35 percent in January to 30 percent in April, while 41 percent expect year-over-year volume to remain unchanged.

“What we’re seeing is not a broad pullback from business travel, but a more deliberate and carefully managed approach to it,” said Suzanne Neufang, chief executive officer of GBTA. “Organizations continue to travel and meet – and innovate – but they’re doing so while adapting to rising costs, operational friction and escalating geopolitical tensions.”