Forecast worsens since last projections in June >>
by: Harvey Chipkin
Deep airline losses will continue well into 2021, even though performance is expected to improve over the next year, according to the revised outlook from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The forecast sees a net loss of $118.5 billion for 2020 (more than the $84.3 billion forecast in June) and a net loss of $38.7 billion in 2021 (more than the $15.8 billion forecast in June). Performance factors in 2021 will show improvements over 2020; and the second half of 2021 is expected to see improvements after a difficult first half of 2021. Aggressive cost-cutting is expected to combine with increased demand during 2021 (due to the reopening of borders with testing and/or the widespread availability of a vaccine) to see the industry turn cash-positive in the fourth quarter of 2021, which is earlier than previously forecast. Alexandre de Juniac, CEO, said it is necessary to get borders safely reopened without quarantines so people will fly again. And with airlines expected to bleed cash at least until the fourth quarter of 2021, he said, “there is no time to lose.” Passenger volumes are not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2024 at the earliest, with domestic markets recovering faster than international services.
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