Study Shows Seasonality, Advance Purchase and Departure Pricing Still Impact Airfares
Report from ARC and Expedia.com shows price rebound in fall from April lows >>
by: Harvey Chipkin
Average air ticket prices are historically low for US travel, but seasonality, advance purchase and departure pricing still impact pricing, according to the 2021 Travel Trends Report from Airlines Reporting Corp. (ARC) in collaboration with Expedia.com. For US travelers, average ticket prices for domestic flights hit their lowest level of the year in late April and have since begun to rebound. From May to October, prices were 25% to 35% lower year-over-year and followed the usual seasonality curve. Average ticket prices for international flights briefly spiked in April before normalizing to 2019 levels in mid-June and finally settling 30% to 35% lower year-over-year during the fall months. According to ARC’s global airline sales data, US travelers who booked flights on Sunday saved on both domestic and international airfares. Additional savings were gained by departing on a Friday for domestic trips, or on a Thursday for international trips — when fares are typically lower. In 2019, the average US traveler booked flights around 35 days in advance of the departure date, but during the onset of the pandemic, that window lengthened to 46 days. Travelers are now purchasing flights just 29 days out. This is the first time in years that the average advance purchase window has dropped below the 30-day mark. Expedia.com lodging data shows that, in 2020, US travelers booked refundable rates 10% more often compared with 2019. That flexibility is also more affordable; according to Expedia.com, average daily rates for refundable bookings were 20% cheaper in 2020 compared with 2019.
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